Seasonality Aware
The seasonal option combines a simple model that detects basic seasonality with dynamic, user-selectable data.
The following chart shows 90-day trend and forecast for the ATP-D database using the seasonality aware model:
Figure 3-5 Seasonality Detection
We see that the seasonality aware model has detected strong weekly seasonality in both the Avg Usage and Max Usage time series, resulting in the wavy forecast lines. There is also a high level of variability in the data, as evidenced by the very wide confidence channels around the forecast lines.
By incorporating the undulating weekly seasonality of the data in the forecast, users are better able to anticipate peak demand requirements that can be smoothed away using linear forecasts.